We have survived two more primaries and only have three more to go. I am sure it will be great for Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico to finally get a (somewhat) meaningful say in the primary process (I say somewhat because the end game is essentially known - my opinion only). This will end one of the most historic primary races ever and one where every state, territory and district got their voices heard - how cool is that for a change?
But that leaves us with one more day to consider, the most important day, in my opinion, left in this entire process pre-convention, May 31st. And I am sure we all know what the significance of that day is right? Its the day, hopefully, Florida and Michigan will finally be put to rest.
And on that night is a scheduled get together of all the party luminaries so lets hope whatever comes out of it is overtly and clearly sanctioned by all parties involved. And that all accept whatever the result is and ask their supporters to do the same.
With that said, I will throw out my opinion of what will take place and after that what I hope takes place.
I believe that no matter what the exact final agreement is we can all be certain that Florida and Michigan will not be seated in any way that will tilt the outcome of the race as it stands now. I think thats just straight forward compromise thinking. There is no way the DNC is going to let those two states reverse the current outcome.
So I say to those who think Florida and Michigan will be seated at 100% strength with no delegates for Obama in Michigan, you might as well start getting into acceptance phase because that simply will not happen.
Most likely what we will see is both states will suffer a 50% penalty in delegates (pledged and super). Florida pledged delegates will probably be allocated based on the outcome of the non-sanctioned primary it held and Michigan pledged delegates will be allocated based on, at best for Clinton, the results from the non-sanctioned primary with Obama getting all the uncommited.
For those hoping for anything more favorable than this, I would not hold your breath. Compromise will rule the day and the DNC will not let Michigan and Florida somehow become king makers or spoilers. Those states will get punished.
Now, as for what I hope happens? Im fine with Florida at 50% delegate penalty (both pledged and super). And as for allocation, based on the non-sanctioned primary is probably as good as it can get. The non-Clinton and non-Obama pledged delegates will be released to do whatever they want (my guess probably follow whatever their candidate requests for the most part).
As for Michigan - screw them. They have played chicken for three primary cycles and its time a harsh penalty is paid. The supers of Michigan should be 100% punished. This mess is their fault entirely. So I would love to see them suffer for it. But as for pledged? While Id love to be just as harsh, its not really their fault, so Id stick with 50%. But for allocation I would do it at a 50/50 split between Clinton and Obama so that they have zero impact on the outcome. This way they get to go and participate but their impact on the delegate race is zero. Again, the reason why Michigan should suffer is for their history of doing this and the supers should pay the ultimate price.
Finally, lets all recall this mess is neither Clintons, Obamas or the DNC's fault. Both campaigns and the states knew the rules and agreed to them upfront. Screwing with the calendar is dangerous and can really screw up the process. Penalties must be paid and the fault must be laid 100% at the feet of those who created it - Florida and Michigan democratic party leaders.
Obviously, this is all my take and I am quite sure many people will disagree with me. But I feel 100% safe in saying that no Florida or Michigan resolution will change the outcome of this primary as it is now.
And Id love to start a camapign to ensure Michigan supers are punished 100%.
In any case, its in the hands of the supers anyway, so on we go to MT, SD and PR.
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