May 31

We have survived two more primaries and only have three more to go.  I am sure it will be great for Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico to finally get a (somewhat) meaningful say in the primary process (I say somewhat because the end game is essentially known - my opinion only).  This will end one of the most historic primary races ever and one where every state, territory and district got their voices heard - how cool is that for a change?

But that leaves us with one more day to consider, the most important day, in my opinion, left in this entire process pre-convention, May 31st.  And I am sure we all know what the significance of that day is right?  Its the day, hopefully, Florida and Michigan will finally be put to rest.

And on that night is a scheduled get together of all the party luminaries so lets hope whatever comes out of it is overtly and clearly sanctioned by all parties involved.  And that all accept whatever the result is and ask their supporters to do the same.

With that said, I will throw out my opinion of what will take place and after that what I hope takes place.

I believe that no matter what the exact final agreement is we can all be certain that Florida and Michigan will not be seated in any way that will tilt the outcome of the race as it stands now.  I think thats just straight forward compromise thinking.  There is no way the DNC is going to let those two states reverse the current outcome.

So I say to those who think Florida and Michigan will be seated at 100% strength with no delegates for Obama in Michigan, you might as well start getting into acceptance phase because that simply will not happen.

Most likely what we will see is both states will suffer a 50% penalty in delegates (pledged and super).  Florida pledged delegates will probably be allocated based on the outcome of the non-sanctioned primary it held and Michigan pledged delegates will be allocated based on, at best for Clinton, the results from the non-sanctioned primary with Obama getting all the uncommited.

For those hoping for anything more favorable than this, I would not hold your breath.  Compromise will rule the day and the DNC will not let Michigan and Florida somehow become king makers or spoilers.  Those states will get punished.

Now, as for what I hope happens?  Im fine with Florida at 50% delegate penalty (both pledged and super).  And as for allocation, based on the non-sanctioned primary is probably as good as it can get.  The non-Clinton and non-Obama pledged delegates will be released to do whatever they want (my guess probably follow whatever their candidate requests for the most part).

As for Michigan - screw them.  They have played chicken for three primary cycles and its time a harsh penalty is paid.  The supers of Michigan should be 100% punished.  This mess is their fault entirely.  So I would love to see them suffer for it.  But as for pledged?  While Id love to be just as harsh, its not really their fault, so Id stick with 50%.  But for allocation I would do it at a 50/50 split between Clinton and Obama so that they have zero impact on the outcome.  This way they get to go and participate but their impact on the delegate race is zero.  Again, the reason why Michigan should suffer is for their history of doing this and the supers should pay the ultimate price.

Finally, lets all recall this mess is neither Clintons, Obamas or the DNC's fault.  Both campaigns and the states knew the rules and agreed to them upfront.  Screwing with the calendar is dangerous and can really screw up the process.  Penalties must be paid and the fault must be laid 100% at the feet of those who created it - Florida and Michigan democratic party leaders.

Obviously, this is all my take and I am quite sure many people will disagree with me.  But I feel 100% safe in saying that no Florida or Michigan resolution will change the outcome of this primary as it is now.

And Id love to start a camapign to ensure Michigan supers are punished 100%.

In any case, its in the hands of the supers anyway, so on we go to MT, SD and PR.


Poll
Should Michigan Supers be Punished 100%
Yes
No

Votes: 17
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


I agree with you (none / 0)

I feel that Florida can be allocated according to the popular vote but should suffer a 50% penalty for pledged delegates and a 100% penalty in superdelegates (their fault this occurred).

Michigan is a little harder, but I'd accept the compromise that Clinton recently rejected which was a 60/40 split in delegates in Clinton's favor.  She wants Obama to get zero delegates from that contest which simply seems wrong to me.  Again 50% penalty in pledged delegates should apply as well as 100% penalty for the superdelegates who have done this time and time again.  People often forget that Gore took his name off the Michigan ballot in 2000 because of these same shenanigans.


by shalca on Wed May 21, 2008 at 04:14:07 AM EST

Re: May 31 (none / 0)

I disagree with your tone on this diary and i am not going to read it , have a nice day.


by alright on Wed May 21, 2008 at 04:54:13 AM EST

Re: May 31 (2.00 / 1)

Just curious, how can you object to the tone of something you haven't read? Unlike too many other diaries, it doesn't have an offensive title.


by letterc on Wed May 21, 2008 at 04:57:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They must be punished to some degree (none / 0)

0 delegates was supposed to force the states to hold replacement caucuses. This has been done multiple times in the past, successfully. MI and FL just refused to play along.

I'm actually fine with counting the pledged delegates in full (it still doesn't change the result), but I definitely think the supers should get zero votes (they still wouldn't change the result either). However, I doubt this will happen. The SDs are too valuable to the Fall campaign. Half votes for the supers is probably the best we can get.


by letterc on Wed May 21, 2008 at 04:56:05 AM EST

Re: They must be punished to some degree (none / 0)

She gets crushed in almost all caucuses, considering how voter-unfriendly they are to her base.  Caucuses requiring 6+ hour long commitments and a learning curve & knowledge of the system far beyond anything Jim Crow could have ever dreamed up just don't don't accomodate the working/middle class, single mothers, and basically anyone with a busy life.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:03:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They must be punished to some degree (none / 0)

Did you just suggest that caucuses are more of an injustice than Jim Crow? I believe you did. Wow. I never knew that the "exclusivity" of the caucuses was backed by paramilitary organizations that tortured and murdered anyone who attempted to violate the rules preventing older white women from participating.


by letterc on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:56:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May 31 (none / 0)

Think the diarist almost has it right.  The most important outstanding issue isn't what the DNC decides about MI and FL (because everyone sort of knows what they're going to propose, and if adopted this would mean the end of the contest).  It's this: will Clinton accept this sort of resolution or carry her fight to the convention?

If she does the second, I think the race is going to get a lot nastier.  And, well, if she doesn't do this I'll be surprised.


by IncognitoErgoSum on Wed May 21, 2008 at 05:32:22 AM EST

If she doesn't they'll hand her her hat. (none / 0)

And you're right. That would be ugly. If the Clinton campaign takes a no-compromise stance on MI and FL then I suspect the supers will declare for Obama the next day. This is her way to have a graceful exit and be able to say she stood strong on MI and FL. It would be terribly sad if she squandered it.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:31:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.