Lets Face Facts

All of us here have our preferred candidate or conversely some of us have a preferred candidate we do not wish to see get the nomination, and some of us are more ardent in our support than others.

I would postulate that most of us are probably semi-passionate with random, but generally rare, moments of insanity where we cross the line in our support or disdain as it were.

I came here a month or two ago when one day, after being on DailyKos as a lurker for a year or two, a comment over there mentioned this place after DK had become the Obama echo chamber.

As an Obama supporter, or probably non-Hillary person, DK was still good for dem stuff and other diary tidbits, but the candidate diaries were tiresome.  I enjoy lively debate and as a younger brother in real life I can be a bit of a devils advocate.  I try to reign in my more snarky tendancies, but I love to debate and discuss.  The way DKos painted this place seemed right on at first, a rabid haven of unhinged Hillary supporters.  And after a few days of lurking here I saw that with all things, there was a small kernel of truth to the statement whereas the underlying reality was quite different.

Sure there were and are agitators or those so blinded that rationality and reason have long since left their stances.  But the bulk of the people here, while mostly ardent Hillary supporters are just that, ardent Hillary supporters, but most importantly, democrats first.

The problem I have most with this site is this inbred fear of the republican hate machine and how it will doom the candidate we dont support.  We have begun to use our fear of the hate of the republicans as our own attack fear on the candidate we want to lose our democratic primary.

I find this really embarrasing and dispiriting.

Lets face facts here.  No matter who are nominee is they are going to be smeared mercilously ten ways to Sunday and 90% of it will be baseless, hateful bunk.

Please do not delude yourself that your candidate is somehow less susceptible or somehow immune to this than the other.

Are the republicans going to use Michelle Obama's 'proud' comment, Wright, Bitter, Obama's flag lapel pin and a bunch of stuff so manufactured and hateful that it would make you puke?  Of course.  And they will do it gleefully.

Do you think the republicans arent salivating to reinvent the 90's hate machine against the Clintons?  Bosnia?  Elitist?  Dont be silly.  To go after Clinton unbridled is probably their most driving passion in the world.

Whatever you think you can come up with as the nastiest attack on your candidate, the republicans will come up with something 10 times as vile and use it and use it with glee.

All that said, that is not how we democrats should choose our nominee.  Sure we may believe in our candidates and think only our guy/gal can come through that and win.  But the reality is, we have no clue how it will play out.

What we do know is we have two great candidates who, in my opinion, once we choose one will mop the floor with McCain.

We democrats are holding all the cards in this election and sadly we are not used to and comfortable with running from the front.  But we better get used to running from the front or we will lose.  We have the better message right now.  When things are this bad it is almost hard to lose.

I dont want to get too overconfident because I never say never and who knows what could happen, but McCain is such an awful candidate that in the light of day and in a head to head campaign he stands no chance.  He is a bitter old man who is wrong on so many issues that I will almost feel sorry for how badly he will be defeated.

So lets not let the fear of republican attacks guide us.  All our candidates are susceptible to vicuous, baseless, scurrilous attacks from the republicans - they know nothing else, and have nothing else.  The republicans will be in full desperation mode.  They hate their candidate (truly, McCain is their albatross), they fear being labelled losers, they fear their complete loss of power and more importantly they fear being repudiated so completely for the last 8 years.

So please, no more using the fear of the big bad republicans as a valid reason for us to choose our candidate, its a loser argument and moot since it will be applied equally to both.

We can not let someone like McCain get into the white house.  He is more and more leaning with the neo-cons as he seems to be more and more surrounding himself with them.

I will make one prediction though that I would bet the house one, and I doubt many of you would disagree.  If McCain gets into the white house, we are going to war with Iran.  Hell, we may be going to war with Iran anyway before the election, but with McCain its a certainty.

Couple that with the supreme court and any of use who claim to be democrats are yet so childish to say 'if its not my candidate, im going home or I'll vote for McCain' should be tarred and feathered.

I know we love our and believe in our candidates, but McCain is worse than both by light years.  Remember that and keep that in mind during this long and sometimes prickly primary season.



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Re: Lets Face Facts (none / 0)

Excellent diary! And very timely as well.

You're absolutely correct that no matter which candidate becomes the nominee, the GOP will be out in force and ready to exploit both candidates' weaknesses, both real and perceived. However - I think both candidates can overcome for the reasons you mentioned. Not only is McCain a gift to the Democratic party, but we have two very strong candidates who's policies are close enough that any reasonable Democrat should be able to say with confidence that either of them possess the ability to drive this country back towards where it should be.

The next time any of us start to say those magic words - "I'll never vote for [Obama][Clinton]" - take a deep breath and imagine war in Iraq.


by upstate girl on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:34:17 AM EST

Re: Lets Face Facts (2.00 / 0)

Honestly, thats what keeps me coming back to sanity.  I really do not like Clinton even though mostly she strongly supports positions I like.  I just struggle to forgive AUMF and Kyl-Lieberman.

All that said, Clinton compared to McCain?  Seriously?  No contest.  I may not Clinton in the primary and will try and work hard (within reasonable boundaries) for anyone but her, but if she comes out on top, no matter how disenfranchised I might feel, she will still get my support and vote in the general election.

I just wish we could all accept what our candidate is going to have to go through in the fall no matter who it is.  Its just the facts and assisting that ugly narrative in our own primary doesnt make our candidate stronger, it only fractures us deeper internally.

We do not win with fear.  We win over fear.


by pattonbt on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:47:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lets Face Facts (2.00 / 0)

Also remember that 2-4 Supreme Court justices will retire during the next President's term(s) and the retirees are mainly the liberal members. The court could swing 6-3 or worse conservative for the next 30 years.


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:19:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lets Face Facts (none / 0)

Great diary


by CaptMorgan on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:43:11 AM EST

The Smear Machine (2.00 / 0)

The Republican smear machine could dig up or manufacture dirt to bury Mother Teresa in bad media.  But I fully believe that once a nominee has settled and passions cool people will come back to earth and look at things rationally.

Poblano over at dKos has a blog where he tracks polls and does statistical analysis on them and he recently looked at what would happen if just half of the my candidate or McCain people came back off the brink and supported the nominee.

Obama's Unity Bounce: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/c ontemplating-unity-bounce.html

Clinton's Unity Bounce: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/c lintons-unity-bounce.html


Proudly joining the legions of people and states that don't matter on May 20th.
by Obama Independent on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 03:26:01 AM EST

Re: Lets Face Facts (none / 0)

They will both be smeared true.

But Hillary has been smeared so much that its mud on mud and thus no net effect.  Obama on the other hand really hasn't.  

The general election will affect Obama support more than Hillary support.

Add in that Obama has more non-democratic voters who are less invested in him and what he stands for than the core Democratic supporters are with Hillary and what she stands for.


by DTaylor on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 04:36:54 AM EST

Re: Lets Face Facts (2.00 / 0)

This is entirely assumption and doesn't have any links or cites to back up your statements. Please provide some if you're going to shill for a candidate in a diary that was specifically and deliberately non-partisan, and argued its point effectively as such.


by upstate girl on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 05:03:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lets Face Facts (none / 0)

But there is just as rational sounding similar anecdotal evidence in reverse:

Hillarys negatives are so high and everyone is already predisposed to dislike her so much that people will more easily believe the most heinous of thngs and therefore drive more people away from her.  Also, by having such high negatives, against a 'maverick' like McCain she cant possibly pull in any independents.

While the Obama camp could so, Obama, being the candidate of change and hope has much lower negatives and is more positive and thus attacks wont stick as well against him as they would her.

POersonnaly, I believe this more than what you put forward.  But Im not a political pundit or expert so who knows which, or if either, is true.  They are both conjecture and we could play the game all day long.


by pattonbt on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 07:34:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lets Face Facts (none / 0)

My favorite thing you wrote here is what you said about not selecting a candidate based on what the Right Wing is going to say about him/her. It really doesn't matter who the candidate in this regard as they will find or invent material on whichever one we put up there. We should pick our candidate solely on our own choices as to who best represents the message we want the party to stand for in this election.


by wasder on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 08:22:18 AM EST


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